Best Ways to Push People to Create (Notes from Jan 13 to Jan 19, 2020)

So, my title is a bit misleading because I don't have the answer. It's a bit annoying. I have many friends and family members that will cite an interest in making something, or even more generally, wanting something to be made. I try to encourage if there's even an interest of a consistency in what they're looking to do. It's worth sharing if they enjoy it. Encouragement isn't the part that's lacking. There's an accountability or fear of not having the time be worth it.

To me, that's a bit of a weakness. Sure, you can be scared that it won't be monetarily advantageous to do it - but that's the part where your own curious/enjoyment makes up for it. If you're interested, you may be more likely to generally share and stay consistent than if you're not. Immediate gratification doesn't go hand-in-hand with consistency, though. And then the starting point usually has a bit of work. All of this adds up to psyching oneself out before ever starting. All the while, we continue scrolling to the next thing, wondering aloud how nice it seems to be sharing something that we're moderately interested in.

  • Peter Guber, Dodgers/Warriors co-owner (KindredCast - WhartonXM)
  • Lion Tree CEO Aria Borkhov with Chairman/CEO of Mandalay Entertainment, 4 sports teams
  • Hollywood productions for 5 Best Picture nominations (Rain Man winner), Midnight Express, Flash Dance, Batman, Soulsurfer
  • "Tell to Win" best-selling author
  • Also owner of Team Liquid and LA FC, professor at UCLA Anderson, Media
  • Recorded at the end of WS 2018 - never before having World Series Game 7 at Dodgers stadium
  • Can't just make hits - ups-and-downs are part of the journey, can't fail will make it so you don't have success
  • Missed out on Dodgers originally when McCourt was buying from FOX, but asked to put up money at last hour, so he backed out
  • Magic brought him in 9 years later and he was more familiar since he owned the AAA team in Oklahoma City
  • Culture providing leadership and top-down, being managing partner
  • Bring best talent, resourcefulness, undervalued performance from someone as surprises, having a long and short-game
  • If short-term doesn't work, the long-term rarely is cared for
  • Caring fully for his team - listen to the audience and imagine their experience is theirs and creating relationships
  • Crucial since you can't get another audience every time - music, movies, sports
  • Brand affinity as breeding success - crucial that word-of-mouth is more powerful than a 30second clip anywhere
  • Looks at it like bond / what the product means for people
  • Audiences expect experiences (how do they feel, what's the benefit, life) - customers/consumers are looking to spend only / wallets
  • Media - Game 6 had 2nd best since 2009 for viewership
  • How do you get technology into media? Twitter paid $10mln with football, Amazon paid $50mln, Facebook with MLB
  • Linear broadcasting - audience getting every media at once, same way - can't act on it (analog to digital)
  • Know the individual audience, can talk to friends/you directly - interface with social group, react and a participant
  • Cultivate participation - don't know about all people generally but now, know the particulars
  • Digital natives - always growing, never had cords - companies need both linear and digital sense
  • Dancing with the enemy - like to kill the other, one is an ally/adversary at different times
  • Can't take an analog advertisement and plunk it on to digital - won't be the same
  • When he was in China doing business, he had to go through an interpreter - didn't have the same feeling/attitude
  • Each sport has unique challenges (and movies) - movie-going has turned into "going to a movie"
  • Driving away from habituation (movie on Fridays) vs ("Let's go to A movie")
  • Narrative of baseball - can look at different things, fantasy, play-by-play and story
  • Basketball is rapid so you have to address down-time in a different format - paces are more important (digital can help)
  • Gambling will introduce a new evolution - betting on emotions, last-pitch, blowouts will be important still
  • Esports - Team Liquid in SC2, LoL, HotS, Overwatch, Halo, CoD, DotA
  • True digital native and a culture change - lifestyle connection is different
  • Became invested in technology after joining Sony and his unique way - his life is connection of artists and audiences
  • How do you create value and multiply value?
  • Consumption with esports as 3 things - expansion, underserving market, global, participatory (could play along)
  • Esports as the music for 18-25 now, lights up their heart ("shut off that music"), engagement attraction
  • Have to understand the language, special - challenge to make money
  • Escape velocity for colleges and training, scholarships - getting older
  • Only got into esports Mark Merrill (Riot Games) came to leadership course and was talking about League of Legends, lit him up
  • Advertising planning, consumer information, still very early
  • 1 to 1 engagement is the biggest difference - 1 to many probably outdated or less effective
  • Made a long bet on VR - 5 years ago - they're the director - mediators give you the meaning
  • Technology as existing for PoC for phone call where you could turn the fight or a game on
  • Fav movie: Godfather 2, Witness -- Fav person: Fidel Castro when Peter was doing a show on diving
  • Unbelievably interesting (Castro)
  • Reading: Sapiens (rec for Undoing Project), Thinking Fast & Slow
  • Amy Abernethy (@DrAbernethyFDA), Principal Commissioner of FDA, Vijay Pande, GP on Bio Fund at a16z (a16z Podcast 1/14/20)
  • Food, Drugs, and Tech - 100 Years of Public Health
  • 113 years ago formed out of 100 laws - hygiene issues as science-based agency
  • Safe and effective medical products to be used with your patients
  • Have to come up with flexible mechanisms to avoid and take risks when appropriate
  • Risk-based scientific decision-making, review and expectation of certain risk in products
  • Hepatic failure, may take a person's life, urgency of problem with number of people of impact, public perception/expectation
  • De-risk: try to ensure pre-conditions are met, toxicity, consistent expectations around clinical effectiveness
  • How does FDA (mentions possible show for crises a la CSI: FDA) deal and think of crises?
  • Medical products could have any crises issues (animals, vapes, food, drugs, biologics, devices, cosmetics)
  • Distribution of potential crises are very real - opioid crisis as slowly creeping up - as information accumulates, problem ID
  • Agency - action plan for several parts on what FDA responsible for
  • What can they do to reduce problem? Reduce patient tablets accessible to, for instance.
  • Can increase methods for access for patient-informed labeling.
  • New treatments for pain and solving problem otherwise
  • 20% of international GDP regulation under FDA and 15% of food imported so needs to be safely labeled, available in country
  • Investigate trucks across border that aren't available over borders
  • PREDICT program - 10 years old rules engine where they are most likely to have unsafe food
  • Drug shortages - have intervened ahead of 160 drugs for shortages there along with the opposite - what happens if there is one
  • Food-borne illnesses to avert problems and they have these discussions in the morning
  • Kits off Amazon for CRISPR - dog glow in the dark, for instance
  • CAR-T as T-cells to re-engineer to supercharge and put back into patient
  • Improving software products that help the world of controls
  • How does FDA think about data privacy and ownership?
  • Practically, proprietary information and confidential. Drug surveillance that might be more publicly available.
  • In CIO role, she wants a Chief Privacy Role - when brought up, data even in HIPAA may be re-identifiable
  • Platform trials - enabling features within 21st century cures
  • Some company/investigators not wanting to subject only product into clinical evidence framework to figure out - especially only shot on goal
  • Taking a while to determine this
  • Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 - contemplation of new payment delivery models, Institute of Medicine research for digital infra in 2007
  • 2008 - GFCrisis for stimulus bill to get the High Tech Act for full-scale distribution of Elec Health Records in 2009
  • Nov 2016 - 21st Century Cures got pulled from shelf as they tried to figure out which was bipartisan opinions
  • Food - FDA part, genetic engineer and synthetic biology - talking with USDA to draw the lines here
  • With new innovations, do we need to change regulatory paradigm?
  • How do we ensure consumers know what's going on? Labels / consistent language (ex: almond milk)
  • Smarter Food Safety - possibility for each food to have a full supply chain that we can check on (whether app-enabled, blockchain)
  • For future of FDA - far more processes automated using the glut of more data
  • Seth Walder (@sethwalder), ESPN Sports Analytics Writer; Alexandra Mandrycky, Dir of Hockey Admin for Seattle (Wharton Moneyball, 1/15/20)
  • Plus minus for receivers, how the NFL will do statistics
  • Different than hockey +/- but far more team-involved
  • Talking an Analytics Coverage for the CFP Championship - what is advantageous, expected, etc
  • Good sports information - bettors can make it as they will - actionable or not
  • Daily Wager show - betting and sports and new statistics
  • "Sacks created", for instance - Zendarius Smith, lead league with 20+ and we're double-teamed the most often
  • Sherman as only targeted 14%, very low for outside corner (one side only - right side)
  • Quantitative Analyst, Danny Chu for second person on the hockey side
  • Cynthia Medina, Founder & CEO of WAGER (Women at Work, WhartonXM)
  • Pay equity discussion - safe space for transparent talks
  • 15 years as exec recruiter, talent consultant, leadership coach and technical recruiting
  • International relations and policy expert for DoHS, Treasury, JPM
  • Served in Peace Corps as well, and founded Cheeky Monkey (women who don't want to network)
  • Thinking in 3-5 year intervals for Jones C Mitchell - personal level for Cynthia, though
  • Short windows of time, managed by feel - not vision
  • She has 29 aunts/uncles (parents of 15, 14) - curiosity for her but not overall something she was chasing
  • 0 had gone to college, first in family to graduate, get a passport, live abroad
  • Lots of layaway for Kmart (waiting 6-9 months), also used to visit Puerto Rico every summer with family - layaway, also
  • Friend group established college as a norm - chose Georgetown since her uncle liked the basketball team
  • She had no sense of the power structure in the US - information and what she was learning
  • Pushes people to apply to hard universities - to be able to make change
  • After college - didn't have a job - got an internship, needed to know she could do it without help
  • Finance area for GAP HQ, could do it (had stayed on a couch initially when she went to SF)
  • Then, decided what she wanted - went to Peace Corp and was the "chicken girl" in Nicaragua
  • Taught how to make a business with microlending loans ($100)
  • After Peace Corps - big picture idea for what's next? Same person - senior year teacher who told her to apply for GU
  • Applies to Harvard - needed a big push - elevating yourself on your own, focus on international affairs
  • Friend at the time was in the area for 9/11 - saw / felt things on 9/11, so 9/12 she went to NY and been with her husband since
  • Felt like she'd done enough for herself, now wanted to serve again - worked for NYPD CT unit, Treasury - anti-terrorist financing
  • Latin American policy expert for the anti-terrorist work
  • She was in DC, husband in NY at the time
  • Started a family - husband had to go to SF for his job, 1 child (3-6months but turns out to be 2 years)
  • Everyone else was happy, now time to do what she wanted
  • Wanted flexibility, good at basics, people - razor-like skills on interview process (first for free, then charge)
  • Told what she was doing, advertised it, did her LinkedIn
  • Driven by wanting other people to feel content. Having lots of conversations with people who aren't doing it correctly
  • Asking for right amount, not asking for what they should get
  • Let's keep good people by being radically transparent - telling husband that she wished all salaries for two days were public
  • Husband, a manager, gave reasons against it (creates more work for managers) - jealousy and infrastructure
  • She BCCed 500 friends - sent email to pair people for salary conversations (1:1) in industry
  • Send LinkedIn and tell her how much everyone made - nothing happened for 12 hours
  • Men, often, would say it's too personal / we're good / exec-level where info would be adversely used
  • "My wife doesn't even know how much I make"
  • Example for 2 people who are now friends of hers - exec woman, exec man - he was making $100/hr more
  • She didn't want to know how much he was making (he offered)
  • Big data problem - once you know, you have to do something and that's often where people will fall off
  • Creating database, sheets and sharing this - nothing to do with action / companies doing different things
  • With more data, what did she discover and finding the needs?
  • Certain industries, large pay gaps - media, marketing, certain places
  • conversation / article at Google - same levels, women > men but because they were staying longer at levels
  • Making the same in cases but women felt like they didn't have the same respect / something they weren't getting
  • Baggage conversations still - persistent imposter syndrome, even when paid well, still work to be done
  • Ability to self-advocate is always around - empowerment to demand space
  • Does workshops out/in companies - compensation with employees in large companies (inc. tech)
  • Example: new shift to tech company - not CEO but 2nd in command or "I'm young"
  • Often hear "well my husband makes more than enough so I don't need to push"
  • "Money is not as important to me" - don't see it as failing, afraid, embarrassed to say they want more, know I'm great
  • People will justify when CEOs or execs leave, company wants to bring in diversity hire and pay 60% - women go in to find
  • Have to ask what you want? If you want to be a manager but haven't managed anyone.
  • Is there an ability or opportunity for you where you want to be?
  • If you don't know what you want - someone will put you where they need you.
  • Haven't made a decision. If it matters for $125k to do these 4 things, need to make actions to get there.
  • She likes helping people negotiate when they don't have to - "have to" in short timeframe - next job is when you get promoted
  • Networking as you build relationships before you need them - started Cheeky Monkey because of motivation and clients
  • Elroy Dimson, Emeritus Professor at London Business School, chairman at Centre for Endowment Asset Management at Cambridge (Meb Faber #100, 3/19/18)
  • Author of Triumph of the Optimists - producing the indexes, small cap 100 in London
  • 10 countries, a century of data, including the UK for returns
  • Found lots of researchers had general interest in more financial returns historically and added them to the book #2 (2000 years Millennium Book #2)
  • Optimists were those that invested in common shares over bonds/T-bills in companies, which is why they named it thus
  • Found out that about 80% of industries that existed at start of century disappeared, and 2/3 of those that exist today didn't exist then
  • Bond market in 1900 existed of some bonds with short maturity like 6-8 years, or in London, had perpetual bonds
  • Composition of mutual fund then vs now - always changing, industries decline and come up
  • Very few survive over the long term - perfectly viable investment strategy as changing
  • Countries that were utterly important - assets survived but ownership changed completely (1917 - Russia and 1940s - China)
  • Making the World Index, history for each country, assets going to zero and Index as the same
  • Idea that economic growth, GDP growth and stock market returns - discovered a negative relationship between them
  • Thinking about valuations - market caps (Japan in 1980s as biggest, US as 50% now)
  • Market cap-weighting as only consistent one
  • Interest rates in 21st century have been way down, real interest rates TIPS / inflation-linked bond of 4%
  • Average now is negative .5 %, promising $1 now, < $1 back later. Gordon model - value of a financial security = D / (r - g)
  • Focus is on real interest rates, nominal is adjusted by inflations in each country (which can be different)
  • Real interest rates were lower in 1970s (minus 10% when inflation was 25%+ and yields were 10-15%)
  • Negative real interest rates are about 1/3 of their 2000+ country years (118+ years, 20+ countries)
  • What's different/rare now - low real interest rates with low inflation and low nominal interest rates
  • Want to bring currency back - most is driven by relative inflation compared to the US - long term it protects you, short term, hurts
  • Tilting away from market cap-weighting, seeing other factors that may or may not make sense
  • Factors measure exposure to attributes of companies (relative size, growth, otherwise)
  • Some factors have a reward - growth companies do well (no premium), value companies instead that show reward
  • Rewards for exposure to particular factors (in hindsight, clear) may not sustain into the future
  • Smart beta, Five Factor model, liquid common stock vs illiquid maybe (mutual fund wanting liquidity may take lower return)
  • For his book's update, added a new chapter for Global Investment Returns Yearbook
  • Looking at durable, tangible assets - real estate is smaller (domestic aggregate real estate is smaller)
  • Expected return on housing - between financial return for long-term bonds and equities
  • Expected volatility is also in between those
  • His grandmother had a wine shop, he's done studies on investment returns for 1900 on, postage stamps, wine, etc
  • Best wine as Claret, First Growth Bordeaux, Premier Cru
  • Best investment - his education, PhD at LBS and then Cambridge