What Do You Want to Happen (Notes Jan 6 - Jan 12, 2020)

It's amazing how quickly the weeks go by in this pandemic time. Wherever you're reading, I hope the lack of patience of the general public to rush outside was limited because in the bay area over the last 2 weekends, it's the opposite. A rush of public places opening up brought all of the public in droves. Streets are crowded again and the freeways were packed through the weekend.

I posted earlier today about continuing to see webinars/conferences that are occurring remotely. This does increase access. But as far as engagement, I'm afraid for many, the reason for past attendance of the big conferences was the networking / interacting face-to-face. Also, there's a staying power of people being in person. In reflecting on many of my own conferences, there's the coffee chats each morning, the lunches of discussions, happy hours or dinners thereafter. These cannot be replicated in the virtual world to the same effect for many. It's likely split - the increase of attendance by anyone anywhere is certainly a boon to the industry - wider spread of important and fundamental ideas/people is probably worth the loss. However, it's a bit unfortunate in the spirit of the big conferences.

I'd be fascinated to see sponsorship groups, facility and hospitality adjustments to the different trend. DataScience Go was this weekend, which has had both remote events and annual treks to San Diego over the past ~5 years with excellent people. I've made quite a bit of virtual and real friendships from these events, and hope to be able to in the future. They had a solid platform with an Expo virtual room, "main stage", as well as sponsored chats and hackathons. I do think that this was a good step in providing the opportunity to do many of the things we look for in reality - better could be the illusion of a real-world conference, maybe in augmented / virtual reality where you're controlling an avatar and attending in a piece - 5 years maybe? Likely 10 for the areas that would need to catch up tech-wise. I'm hopeful.

Hope you enjoy the following notes - Naveed has progressed many companies forward that inspire future technology or movements into new spaces, Pauline Brown discussed LVMH and luxury retails control over items of want instead of need, as well as Cesar Kuriyama's obsession with TED talks, building and design of 1 Second Everyday.

• Naveen Jain, entrepreneur of 7 co's (Launch Pad, Wharton XM)
• Founder of Moon Express, Viome, InfoSpace
• As we get older, part of aging to be human and why we should be sick
• Yes - lifestyle diseases compared to being healthy (being sick as a choice, as well)
• What is gut bacteria? Wrong - humans have more foreign cells than human cells from parents
• Genes from parents are 22k protein-producing genes vs 40 tn microbes in the gut (viruses, bacteria, etc)
• Those 40tn microbes/organisms produce 2 to 20 million genes (at best, 1% human)
• Tuning your body and food testing repeatedly - can change every 3 months
• Parkinson's and microbiome, obesity, autoimmune, etc
• Why is healthcare making money when there is a disease?
• Nobody is making money - incentives don't agree. Same with educatio.
• Moon Express - high degradation, low gravity, and figuring out an interplanetary society
• Wrong question - "How to grow food on planet?" to "What do we need to keep people alive on the moon?"
• Energy may come from radiation, photosynthesis, nitrogen/hydrogen or something else
• Too many people look at the symptoms of the problem compared to the root
• Based out of Cape Canaveral, FL and has around ~35 people, Viome is 150 (Seattle)
• Only company allowed to leave Earth orbit
• Entrepreneurs will be the next super powers - first time in history where individuals are capable
• Starting as passing the test in programming without knowing or having seen a computer
• Phone interview and apparently aced it (byte vs bit - big and small) - before being sent from India to New Jersey
• Never seen a non-white person there and he was an alien
• Working on MS DOS 1.0 - wanted to get back to India and go back
• Moved to SV after applying for an interview with Convergent Technologies
• Faxed his resume - half a dozen companies
• After a few years, he decided he wouldn't be the best programmer - first microprocessors at Intel
• Moved up to Microsoft in Seattle after a few startups, then OS 2 ("half the operating system") as a program manager
• Wanted to start InfoSpace because he saw that there would be a paradigm shift
• Good at understanding what is coming up next - fundamental for companies doing business
• Couldn't see how MS could grasp how to see it in the construct of the company - too much to lose if it succeeds
• Friday evening he decided he was done, resigned Microsoft - went home to his wife and she chewed him out [pregnant]
• As an entrepreneur, most people want to focus on where tech is vs where it will be
• 2.5 years he took the company public, in 1999 - bigger than Boeing and others
• Best you can do as you become an expert - can improve product by 10-15% but can't do 10-100x better
• Must fundamentally challenge the foundation of the question
• For Moon Express - asked "why do people eat food?", for healthcare not "What organisms in your gut?" but instead "what do the organisms produce?"
• Come up with most disruptive idea that can help a billion people and multi-100 billion company
• Ex: lack of fresh water, can solve it - help 1 billion - if you come up with filter and desalination, can feel really good
• Why do we have shortage of fresh water? Agriculture - solve the root cause. Aquaponic, hydroponic, aeroponic to get more water.
• Ask next: Where does agriculture water get used for? Majority is used to feed the cattle. Can do plenty of fresh water.
• Take stem cell from cow - just grow muscle tissues, not eyes and otherwise.
• If you're successful with what you're doing - is it going to actually help millions live their life?
• Am I passionate or truly obsessed about it? "Passion is for losers" - if you don't jump out of bed, you're doing something wrong.
• What are you willing to die for? And live for it.
• If I had everything in my life, what would I do? And you can go get it.
• Domains 1: The .com King with Rick Schwartz (StartUp Podcast 8/31/17)
• May 1993 could call up ATT and get (800) numbers as 'vanity' numbers
• 1-800-makeout as a recording call chatline - owns the number and rents it out
• He had $1/mo for 150 of the phone numbers, got a nice check for $7700
• Domain name .coms after the phone numbers - December 26, 1995 - lipservice.com first
• Used it to advertise his numbers after he pestered his brother for registering the domain names
• Friend called him saying dick.com was available - got $200 in the first night
• Domain collectors started secondary market - he bought porno.com for $42k
• He offered $10k, 15k, up to 42k after kid had done $5k originally
• Sold porno . Com for $9mil after collecting around $20 mil on the site with only "Enter Here" and selling it temporarily
• Seat at tables of all kinds of domains - path dependency for .com (different is a bigger deal)
• He has hotproduct, candy, ass, shoes
• Tried to buy Gimlet.com originally - $43k at start, then $76k (or $5k down and $1k for 48 mos)
• Owner of the registry was called and he knew the value
• Since, they still own Gimlet.fm, .audio, .media
• Domains 2: Sex dot com with Gary Kremen (StartUp Podcast 9/7/17)
• 1994 Stanford MBA and undergrad in engineer, internet seemed a good place for classified ads
• Registered domains for all the places - housing, match, sex, jobs (.com)
• Gets investors for Match.com and brings all domains to the company except for the primary one
• Had a falling out with the investors and he left the company, plus the domains
• Got a call from a friend in the industry who said he didn't own the site - Stephen Cohen
• Cohen had claimed he had received the domain via a letter from Kremen's old address
• Lots of issues with letter from typos and idea that a letter saying Online Classifieds (Kremen's company) didn't have internet
• Legal defamation and suit back and forth
• Cohen would make up stuff to tie up proceedings of dropping the case while legal fees signed up
• Friends got tired of hearing it from Gary, except Cohen who would call him (Cohen believed that Gary had stolen it from him)
• Gary was broke - lawsuits cost him a ton and started drug spiraling out of his mind
• In 2001, won the suit as federal judge ruled in his favor - $40mn made and $25mn to damages for Gary
• Dozens of companies offshore and money in his wife's name - fled to Mexico before ruling and stayed
• Gary went after Network Solutions (one who accepted forged letter) in 2002 and ruled in his favor in 2003
• Digital property as domain and traced from this single lawsuit
• He was owed a ton of money - 20% was his offer for information on his reward
• Gary was able to collect Steve's house (used to drive him crazy) in Rancho Sante Fe on 9k sq ft
• Had ripped out all the wires, drawers, and it was a dump - Steve's mansion cost a fortune with maintenance
• Tries to reinvent himself as a porn entrepreneur - trying to play the part
• Gets an offer to sell sex.com and he closes it - can't let go though without getting the $65mn
• Gary invited Tim, lawyer, over in 2005 - brought on as tracking down what Steve had
• 3 primary attorneys, 1 in Mexico, private investigator - 5 months and $200k in legal time
• Look for assets in other parts of the world, Estonia, Norway, Bahamas, Caymans, etc
• In 2005, Steve is arrested in Mexico and given to Border Patrol and sent to jail in San Diego
• Pony up or don't leave - refused to reveal money for more than a year, also deposed by Gary's lawyers
• Steve is released and sent back to Mexico - they have tabs on him for new businesses
• Gary collected $14mn for the domain, house for $4mn and settlement from Network Solutions (~$12mn)
• Steve lives on the beach and never paid a penny, while also living comfortably
• Pauline Brown, former Chairman of North America for LVMH (Wharton XM, Marketing Matters)
• Recent author of Aesthetic Intelligence: How to Boost It and Use It in Biz and Beyond
• Steve Jobs had the clarity of a vision for the design
• Aesthetic empathy as the emotional effect on people in design - not just judged by strength of processor
• Have to start at the organizational level, not individual - if it's not prioritized and embraced, it won't continue
• Low on EQ, his genius extended to the silhouettes, textures, materials - generally lifting the senses
• Radio show called Taste Makers on Starz channel, English undergrad at Dartmouth before Wharton MBA
• First job after Wharton - consulting in 1995 to Leveraged buyouts and private equity, at Bain
• Moved to Estee Lauder shortly after they had gone public - Head of Strategy (one of two)
• Strategy to move from home-grown brand with same models (US dept store-driven)
• Move to different distributions, geographic roots and strategically acquire - M&A movement
• 1999 splash for Sephora (from France) - had mass vs class - clear differences between the two
• LVMH has roughly 70 individual brands - almost all stems from Europe but US is largest market
• Her role was the regional leader in a large market - take what could've been complex business to insight in others
• Mobility of talent and other areas of underleveraged points
• Between the 2 companies, $15bn (EL) and $40 bn (LVMH) produce 0 products that people actually NEED
• If people were asked what they expected to see on the Paris Fashion Runway, it'd look nothing like what shows up
• If you ask what a favorite restaurant is - you expect that the food is good
• Won't tell you that the lighting is so good, or the acoustics are so great, or utensils
• She used the different glasses for wine as an example of what may draw the experience
• With Apple Store - lighting of stores, choice of textiles/absence, windows as all glass
• Navigation to the restaurant itself - CX
• Awareness / Taste - differences for music, taste, style and career aspects
• We numb our senses to get through the day - she does workshops to get back into senses
• Chairs that force poor posture, fluorescent lighting (toxicity), buzzing or background sounds and awareness of others
• Second step - interpretation, after awareness
• How do you feel about the senses? Why do you feel that way? Some things are good, some things are unpleasant.
• Rock music can be energizing to one, others may react negatively
• Third Step - articulation (Steve Jobs)
• Masterful at articulating with precision and command what felt good to him so thousands could execute on it
• Hiring on a designer for their home, most people are too vague, imprecise or sloppy in communicating
• Fourth - curation
• Presenting at a store, menu coming together - CEO, presenting a story and visual accompaniment
• Editorial command
• Hosting a dinner and you want to make a great meal with 10 favorite ingredients, may not go together
• Coco Chanel - elegance is refusal
• Course of creativity at Wharton - some best results on creativity to inspire is with constraints
• Rarely do the most successful people have the best style - once you have the means, you don't really care
• Easier to make decisions on constraints occasionally - cited some students that perform better there
• Bruce Mehlman, founder at Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas (Behind the Markets 1/10/20)
• One of biggest things - Chinese media co can come to US but not the reverse
• Fundamental for way China governs, see very little chance for a resolution
• Taiwan elections coming up - current president get re-elected (pro-independence camp)
• Market in Taiwan was higher than S&P over the past year, will get elected priced in
• Running against her - from Traditional Taiwan Party (original that left China in 1949) - considered non-establishment
• Lost steam as we near elections - China would prefer him as pro-China, one-China/two-systems
• Bruce's opinion: size of China's market and economic power is worrisome
• Believed greater engagement of rest of world would lead to liberalizing and reform in China
• Have seen rise of Western-type companies, technologically
• We don't see greater political freedom or cooperative economics by companies
• National champions groomed to dominate across the world, rise of new power integrating without others
• Graham Allison, prof of Harvard went back through history back to Sparta and Athens where rising power confronted existing power
• 12 of 16 were war, 4 of 16 peacefully
• 1 child policy result of demographic challenges - lead to massive aging workforce to retiree where they don't have a safety net
• Decelerating growth and pressure on Communist party - 2 choices: fault others abroad or become an integrated, trusted global partner
• Perceiving an era of heightened disruption, financial collapse and angry at income equality
• Couple that with technology, historic immigration and country changing faster than expected - then throw in politics
• Gilded Age description of 1880-1900 parallels the current (income inequality, immigration with electricity, auto, railroad)
• When system was built, it was 15 workers to 1 retiree, 5-10 years of retirement
• Now, 2.5 workers to 1 retiree and 1/3+ of your life in retirement, along with not having full career path
• More businesses started in the Carter administration weekly than now in the Trump admin
• May need to reimagine policies and regulation for innovating
• Rising prices may not be the only measure
• How do we expand the winner circle? Superstar Economy by McKinsey
• Right skills, edu, sector, city - never had more opportunity to be successful and command share of spoils
• If most people don't have this opportunity, they'll vote for change/populace
• Splinter-net - Bruce thinks we're there and it gets worse
• Core: goals of 3 regions are radically different - regionalized internet with these rules
• Europe: protect people and very regulatory toward tech platforms (leaders in privacy, AI regulations)
• US: empowering people, free speech (platforms with protection for users' saying), tons of startups but maybe not protective
• China: control, social credit scores, access to information and anonymity - successful in AI, TenCent, Alipay, Alibaba
• Privacy of EU regulation - allowed Google and Facebook to grow market share because others can't comply or afford
• Danielle Cohn, VP of Entrepreneurial Engagement and head of LIFT Labs at Comcast (Wharton XM)
• Further research
• Cesar Kuriyama, creator of 1SE (Indie Hackers #141, 1/2/20)
• Bootstrapping an app to millions through persistence
• He's been doing it for 8.5 years, each day
• Background in visual effects and animation, agencies/advertising at the start of his career post-art school
• Lots of media, thought he was CS - wanted to be an animator
• Took some time in advertising to realize that he was executing others' ideas, not his own, so became disenfranchised
• Saw TED Talk of Stefan Sagmeister, also an alum of Pratt school in Brooklyn - Power of Time Off
• Every 7 years, closes down his studio and does a retirement for a year - can do different things when young than old
• Cesar would do 100 hour weeks on deadlines
• Memory trigger as 1 second - not quite a photograph, still bonus of sound and wanted easy to rewatch
• Can ALWAYS relive 6 minutes (1 year)
• Day to day life was "being creative" in lieu of a brand or project
• 1 second everyday was to keep a journal where he wouldn't stop after 3 days - video
• Courtland did 6 months to take to himself - drained half his bank account and had to figure it out
• Cesar came up with the idea - didn't intend to squander a year off - how does he make a living on something he's passionate toward?
• First 6 months - not sure what he wanted to do, directed a music video in the past and in spare time
• Techie, but wasn't sure how to build the app - asked everyone for questions / programs / dev shops
• This was 2012 - $100k dev shops where they said it was difficult
• iOS dev meetups and blend in - make friends that way
• He went to agency party that friend had invited him to - sat next to a developer at a shop
• Was at their office (had just started after they quit their finance jobs - wanted to get biz) and met up
• Wanted to make sure they could do it - he brought credibility, TED talk and their video - they could do $20k
• He didn't have $20k, he'll launch the KickStarter to get the funding BUT he didn't want to do it without a prototype
• They agreed - launched in months and it worked - most backers ever, lot of press, 11k backers
• January 2013 launch and 2 weeks after the ending of the KickStarter
• He would watch the TED Talk of the Day everyday - Facebook posted about the first TED auditions
• He needed to do it so he wouldn't regret it later - counselor when he was in high school said to "Live to regret things you do, not didn't"
• 1 minute - 60 sec video, included 30 seconds of his 1second everyday - they chose him and 17 others to speak at an event in NYC
• Broadcasting his idea to everyone - not caring about those that steal or hack together a clone / idea
• Execution is what matters and he paid enough attention and love into it
• Built app, wanted it to exist and be on the app store - make enough money passively that he can use it to supplement other work
• Terrible business decision - app was $1, 8k pledges were $1 - rest weren't
• $5 would have KickStarter backer section of 3-4k names in the credits of the app
• Tried to create higher pledges for not a lot of work
• At time, limited to 100 beta testers and he filled them quickly (or unlimited now)
• 50k downloads first day - support ticket per second - it was him full-time and dev shop part-time
• First 2 years - "would finish the app" - don't finish tech, always an update or feature
• Liked comics growing up; interned at Marvel in college
• Tweeted, was eventually in movie Chef because Jon Favreau enjoyed the app
• He tweeted it off in the morning and Jon looked at his profile with the app, TED talk
• All from because Jon said something nice about showing up to Iron Man 3 (after producing/directing IM1+2)
• Immediate awareness of business - can't do it himself, first couple of years - endless emails
• Couldn't answer support tickets because of time it took to fix the things they were about
• Coming from art and different space, without business - not tech or Silicon Valley
• Going to Tim Ferriss book signing at an Apple store - waited it out until 10 people were left
• Don't raise money, figure out a way to build without investors, a prototype (how he landed on KickStarter)
• First year of tech ecosystem - privy to VC-land
• Charging was weird, no tech developer/CTO was red flag, video wasn't native yet
• Not everyone meant to start a company, be an entrepreneur - scratch the itch, though
• Consumes a lot, now very little excuses to start (30% of ideas estimate as without coding)
• Moving from #17 in app store, #3, #1 in 2018 (then first week) - paid app - New Year's was always big time
• Made it free at start of that year with subscription tier
• Revenue 2x (2018 - $2mn, 2017 - $1mn, etc)
• Decided to raise without venture - Bryce Roberts, Indie.vc, Earnest Capital after recognizing need for more devs
• 13 in September and hired 7 more alone there - company retreat
• Joel from Buffer also invested - wanted to emulate
• If role of social media is to incentivize more scrolling so that they can show you more ads (engagement as metric)
• He wants to bring max value for least amount of time - exactly what you wanted to consume in 5 minutes (vs 45)
• Being acquired isn't particularly a goal - private life for 7+ years for some
• Notifications to turn them on - don’t need to know these instantly (1se does 1 a day / batch)
• Created a habit for 1 second video - fix for friends/family and that's it - Instagram as highlights
• He has his 1SE video - would look to be meaningless if you watch others', potentially
• Ex: Apple email from "Best of 2019" that he posted a video recording
• Social media as this generation's fast food - probably worse for us than we believe
• Maybe his will be 50 million people and not multiple billion
• Who does he need to pay to not get targeted by ads? - Hopes for a better decade ahead
• Find Venn diagram of what you're capable of doing - if anything lingering in your head, have to start it
• No limit to resources online - how to eat an elephant "one bite at a time" 2 years after he did the first TED talk
• "Divide divide divide" - he grew up ashamed he couldn’t ride a bike because he was embarrassed
• Ate at him all the time and jealous of bikers in NY - how does he start?
• Needed a bike - (got a foldable one), could do a straight line, then went to just do that and brakes in bike lane
• Would make a turn, another turn and within a year - he was that prick going between cars, as fast, thru red